LDVideo: Understanding how opinion polls work, Yes Minister-style
Are for the re-introduction of national service, or against it? In this clip Yes Minister explains how you can hold both views simultaneously… (Also available on YouTube here.)
View ArticleLords Ashcroft’s Corby poll (and my predictions therefrom…)
Today saw the publication by Lord Ashcroft of an opinion poll he’s funded to find out the likely result at the forthcoming parliamentary by-election in Corby: ‘Labour take 22-point lead in Corby’. I...
View ArticleWhy there isn’t a British Nate Silver
A skim-read of Wednesday morning’s headlines might have left folk confused as to who had been declared the victor of the US presidential election: Barack Obama or Nate Silver. For those who don’t know...
View ArticlePeter Kellner’s 5 reasons why the fundamentals favour the Tories in 2015
Peter Kellner today assesses the lie of the polling land – and concludes it’s looking good for the Conservatives. This in spite of the fact they still trail Labour by around 5% in most polls. Why? He...
View ArticleTwo-party politics is dead: the Labservatives now trail the Other Parties
The FT Data blog charts the decline of The Parties Formerly Known As The Two Main Parties: People in the UK are more likely to support a third party rather than vote Conservative or Labour in the...
View ArticleLib Dem poll ratings – why I’m putting my trust in ICM
Occasionally, when I see the latest poll showing the Lib Dems’ poll rating dribbling along at 6-8%, I wonder if I was stupidly over-optimistic when I nailed my colours to the mast with my prediction in...
View ArticleWhich 9 Lord Ashcroft constituency polls are wrong?
So far, Lord Ashcroft’s £million-plus polling spree has brought us 177 individual constituency polls. Which leads me to my question: which 9 of them are wrong? The reason why I ask that is simple....
View ArticleLib Dem private polling v Lord Ashcroft’s polling (PLUS the sting in the tail...
I have a piece on today’s Times Red Box blog looking at Lib Dem prospects for this May’s election: Ignore the Liberal Democrats at your peril – and don’t write them off. Here’s its premise: There is a...
View Article“Comfort polling”, Lord Ashcroft? Okay, here’s a simple challenge then
Right at the top, I want to say I’m a fan of Lord Ashcroft’s seat-specific polling. It would’ve been easy for him as a Conservative peer to calibrate his constituency surveys deliberately to undermine...
View ArticleCliffs AND ledges. The Lib Dem polling plunge, 2010-15, explained
Mark Pack has a typically insightful blog-post asking from when can we date the Lib Dems’ election catastrophe — from the moment the Coalition deal was signed, or as a result of specific events within...
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